Business case: a map of the research field before we commit the money

The problem

We allocate across research areas none of us can read whole. Each area has thousands of papers a year and a handful of experts we trust, and every expert sees the field from inside their own corner of it. So we decide from briefings, citation counts, and whoever presented most recently. We can't say with confidence where the real momentum is, which communities matter to an area, or whether two of our investments are paying for the same work under different names. When someone asks why we funded one area and passed on its neighbor, the answer is a judgment call we can't show our work on.

Proposed engagement

We give Syntheos the research areas we're weighing and, if we choose, our current portfolio. Syntheos locates each one on the Map of Science and reports what the map shows. For each area that means the research communities it touches, how those communities have grown, the institutions most active in them, and the neighboring communities that draw on their work. Where we supply our own records, such as awards, patent families, or internal program categories, Syntheos overlays them so we see our position against the whole field. Where we're about to commit, they write down what they expect to happen before the outcome is known, which gives us something to check later.

What we get

• A picture of the field we can inspect. Each research area resolves into named communities with the papers behind them, so our own experts can open any one and disagree with it.
• Overlap we couldn't see. Where two of our investments land in the same research community, the map shows it, whatever the two programs are called.
• Open ground. The map shows communities adjacent to our interests where activity is growing and we have no presence.
• What sits downstream. For any community we fund, we see which other communities draw on its work, so we know what else moves when it moves.
• Forecasts we can score. Expectations are written before the outcome and checked against the publication record afterwards.
• An answer to the question we always get. When someone asks why this area and not that one, we open the map and show them.

Risks and mitigations

• What if the map misses our field. The map is built from the published literature. Work that isn't published, including classified and proprietary research, won't appear unless we supply it. Syntheos can overlay our own records for exactly that reason, and the assessment says plainly where coverage is thin.
• What if our experts disagree with it. They should be able to. Every claim names the communities and papers it rests on, so a disagreement becomes a specific question about specific evidence.
• What if the answer is unwelcome. The assessment reports what the record shows. If a favored area turns out to be crowded, or an investment duplicates another, we would sooner learn it before the money moves.
• What if a forecast is wrong. Some will be. Each one is written down early so that we can count the misses and decide how far to trust the next one.
• What if a number is challenged. Quantitative claims carry the same evidence ledger discipline Syntheos uses on its program analysis sites, with a stated confidence level and a source that reproduces.

Success metrics

• The assessment shows us at least one overlap between our investments, or one open area next to them, that we didn't know about.
• One of our subject matter experts opens a claim they doubt, reads the papers behind it, and either changes their mind or changes the map.
• An allocation decision changes because of what the map showed, and we can say which finding changed it.
• A year on, we score the written forecasts against the publication record and know how many held.

Investment and timeline

Two weeks for a first map of one research area or one portfolio. A full assessment scales with the number of research areas and with how much of our own data is overlaid, so a single public range would be misleading. A scoping conversation produces a fixed price and a fixed timeline before any contract is signed.

Recommended next step

Send Syntheos one research area or one portfolio. Within two weeks they'll show us the research communities it touches and where the open ground is. There is no fee. By the end of the walkthrough, we'll know whether the map shows us something we couldn't see before. Syntheos asks one thing in return. Whoever owns the decision is in the room for the walkthrough.