The 2026 Watch List

Seventeen fields our map flags for 2026. We'll score every one in public.

We tested the method on history first. Of the fields our 2018 map flagged, 28% broke out by 2024, nearly three times the rate for science as a whole.

The exact rule behind this list, run on the 2018 map, picked sixteen fields. Ten of them broke out.

Published October 2026.

Physical sciences and engineering

  • Text-to-image diffusion models

    The models behind AI image generators such as Stable Diffusion.

    Papers, 2021 to 2024

    114 to 2,144

    18.8x

    Other fields citing it, 2021 to 2024

    29 to 598

    20.6x

  • Human-centered manufacturing (Industry 5.0)

    Manufacturing research that designs automation around the people working beside it.

    Papers, 2021 to 2024

    221 to 893

    4.0x

    Other fields citing it, 2021 to 2024

    26 to 212

    8.2x

  • Underground hydrogen storage

    Storing hydrogen at grid scale in salt caverns and depleted gas fields.

    Papers, 2021 to 2024

    154 to 527

    3.4x

    Other fields citing it, 2021 to 2024

    30 to 85

    2.8x

  • Piezocatalysis for pollutant breakdown

    Materials that build up charge under vibration or ultrasound and use it to break down pollutants.

    Papers, 2021 to 2024

    243 to 622

    2.6x

    Other fields citing it, 2021 to 2024

    72 to 190

    2.6x

  • Physics-informed neural networks

    Neural networks trained to obey the equations of physics, used to simulate fluid flow and other physical systems.

    Papers, 2021 to 2024

    626 to 1,837

    2.9x

    Other fields citing it, 2021 to 2024

    340 to 744

    2.2x

  • Color-changing freshness films

    Food packaging that changes color as the food spoils, using plant pigments called anthocyanins.

    Papers, 2021 to 2024

    202 to 577

    2.9x

    Other fields citing it, 2021 to 2024

    95 to 197

    2.1x

  • Green ammonia production

    Making ammonia from renewable hydrogen, for fertilizer and as a fuel that stores energy.

    Papers, 2021 to 2024

    90 to 195

    2.2x

    Other fields citing it, 2021 to 2024

    26 to 63

    2.4x

  • Hydrogen-bonded organic frameworks

    Porous crystals held together by hydrogen bonds, built for gas separation and catalysis.

    Papers, 2021 to 2024

    105 to 228

    2.2x

    Other fields citing it, 2021 to 2024

    52 to 108

    2.1x

Life sciences

  • Mendelian randomization

    Using inherited genetic variants as natural experiments to test whether an exposure causes a disease.

    Papers, 2021 to 2024

    767 to 2,927

    3.8x

    Other fields citing it, 2021 to 2024

    535 to 1,456

    2.7x

  • Plant disease detection from leaf images

    Deep learning that spots crop disease in photographs of leaves.

    Papers, 2021 to 2024

    1,310 to 3,708

    2.8x

    Other fields citing it, 2021 to 2024

    245 to 609

    2.5x

  • Machine-learning autism screening

    Models that screen for autism from eye tracking or brain scans.

    Papers, 2021 to 2024

    232 to 455

    2.0x

    Other fields citing it, 2021 to 2024

    28 to 60

    2.1x

  • Microneedle drug delivery

    Patches of tiny needles that deliver drugs through the skin or sample the fluid beneath it.

    Papers, 2021 to 2024

    518 to 959

    1.9x

    Other fields citing it, 2021 to 2024

    234 to 394

    1.7x

  • cGAS-STING signaling

    The pathway cells use to sense stray DNA and raise an immune alarm, now a drug target in cancer and inflammatory disease.

    Papers, 2021 to 2024

    581 to 1,103

    1.9x

    Other fields citing it, 2021 to 2024

    494 to 776

    1.6x

Health sciences

  • Oxidative balance scores

    Composite diet and lifestyle antioxidant scores tested against disease risk in large population surveys.

    Papers, 2021 to 2024

    58 to 194

    3.3x

    Other fields citing it, 2021 to 2024

    25 to 87

    3.5x

  • AI reading of dental X-rays

    Deep learning that finds decay and bone loss in dental radiographs.

    Papers, 2021 to 2024

    383 to 1,111

    2.9x

    Other fields citing it, 2021 to 2024

    48 to 125

    2.6x

  • Digital health literacy

    Whether patients and clinicians can find, judge and use digital health tools.

    Papers, 2021 to 2024

    264 to 511

    1.9x

    Other fields citing it, 2021 to 2024

    84 to 205

    2.4x

  • Umami peptides from food

    The small protein fragments that give foods their savory taste, and how to find and make them.

    Papers, 2021 to 2024

    92 to 197

    2.1x

    Other fields citing it, 2021 to 2024

    45 to 59

    1.3x

The same rule in 2018

Sixteen picks. Ten broke out.

Run on the map as it stood in 2018, the rule picked single-cell RNA sequencing and MXenes, both of which took off.

The misses teach as much. Generative adversarial networks were the hottest method in machine learning in 2018, and diffusion models overtook them. Neutron star mergers drew a burst of papers after the first one was observed in 2017, and then leveled off.

Picked in 2018Growth to 2024Result
  • Nanoparticles for photodynamic therapy in low-oxygen tumors5.8xBroke out
  • Marine plastic debris and microplastics5.5xBroke out
  • MXenes (two-dimensional carbides and nitrides)4.6xBroke out
  • MRI brain tumor segmentation4.2xBroke out
  • Plant root microbiomes3.6xBroke out
  • Single-cell RNA sequencing3.5xBroke out
  • Deep eutectic solvents3.2xBroke out
  • Reagent-free electrochemical organic synthesis2.9xBroke out
  • Earth-abundant water-splitting catalysts2.8xBroke out
  • Radiomics of tumor CT and PET scans2.3xBroke out
  • Agriculture and nutrition on smallholder farms1.6xMissed
  • New families of probability distributions1.4xMissed
  • Light from neutron star mergers1.1xMissed
  • Diet and physical activity apps0.9xMissed
  • Generative adversarial networks0.8xMissed
  • Drone photogrammetry for terrain mapping0.8xMissed

Growth in papers from 2018 to 2024. A field broke out when it grew faster than nine in ten others.

How to read this list

The map flags momentum, fields growing fast and drawing on more of science each year. Momentum predicts more growth. Whether the growth is worth having is a separate question.

Some of these fields are real shifts in what science can do. Others are booms in a style of paper. Nearly a third of recent oxidative balance score papers name the same US national health survey in their titles. They're on the list because the rule picked them, and we don't edit the rule's picks.

We expect about eleven of the seventeen to break out. Each year we'll post the score, and name the big breakouts we missed.

Telling a real shift from a publishing boom is the judgment our clients pay for.

How we picked them

Every field in the map was scored on how fast its papers grew from 2021 to 2024, and how fast the number of other fields citing it grew. We kept the established fields still rising in 2024, then took the top scorer in each scientific discipline.

  1. 21,048fields scored
  2. 2,134flagged as gaining ground
  3. 467established and still rising
  4. 17on the list, one per discipline

We can run the same rule inside your field and show you what's moving fastest and what it rests on.

Ask for a watch list for your field