The Inverse Confidence Law
ChatGPT cited six fake cases in Mata v. Avianca with the same confidence it would have used for real ones. The verbal certainty of an LLM is roughly uncorrelated with whether the answer is true.
Analysis and argument on AI decision-making, institutional risk, and the gap between what systems promise and what they actually do.
ChatGPT cited six fake cases in Mata v. Avianca with the same confidence it would have used for real ones. The verbal certainty of an LLM is roughly uncorrelated with whether the answer is true.
Air Canada lost a case over a chatbot for $812.02 in February 2024. That was the small lead indicator for everything California's AB 316 has now made law.
In February 2024 a Hong Kong firm wired $25 million to a synthetic CFO over a deepfake video call. Every protective layer in the firm's controls had become invalid before the call rang.
Six points in three months for a cohort of Polish endoscopists. Four hours of hand-flying in six months for one Air France captain. We do not yet have a generational rate constant. We have within-cohort signals that should worry us.
Atul Gawande wrote in 2018 about what got lost when his hospital migrated to Epic. AI summarization runs the same migration in seconds, on documents whose structure does work the words do not.
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